German elections: What role will social media play?

Helen Whittle

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party took just over 30 percent of the vote in the recent regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony, which was partly attributed to the party's effectiveness in reaching first-time voters in TikTok.

Matthias Kettemann, an expert in internet regulation and media law at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, says it is impossible to say exactly what impact social media has on shaping public opinion and democratic decision-making processes.

However, what is clear is that more and more people are using social media and there is a general trend towards polarization. "Far-right and far-left parties tend to be more successful on social media because they have stories that are easier to tell, which drives engagement with the platforms' amplification algorithms," he told DW.

Observers are also wary of the growing influence of Elon Musk, the world's richest man and the platform's owner. X, who was undoubtedly Trump's biggest ally in his successful campaign to reclaim the US presidency.

Meanwhile, Germany's Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck of the Green Party made a surprise return to the microblogging platform this week after a six-year absence, saying he didn't think he was letting it go. X-only to "those who shout and populists".

Jörg Hassler, an expert on digital and political communications at Ludwig Maximilian University in Munich, believes that "the biggest problem is disinformation coming from above." According to him, political leaders are now focusing more on personal attacks against their competitors or engaging in debates on secondary issues such as election dates.

During a debate in the Bundestag on Wednesday, Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU), expressed his disgust at the fake videos created by artificial intelligence that have been circulating online and shared on social media. "The fact that they were posted and forwarded by Social Democratic lawmakers gives a taste of the kind of election campaign that is being prepared to follow here in Germany," Merz said.

"The important issues are how the economy is doing, whether people can benefit from state welfare and so on, but it seems that politicians are not interested in these issues," said Kettemann.

While campaign tools developed in the US are subject to strict legal and regulatory restrictions in Germany, for example through data protection and party finance laws, social media has become an important part of the hybrid media ecosystem in which information flows between social media and traditional media.

"You can't win elections on social media, but you can lose them," Hassler said. He cited the example of Armin Laschet, the CDU's candidate for chancellor in the 2021 federal election. Laschet's campaign was destroyed after he was filmed laughing during an official visit to the Rhein-Erft District, a region of Germany devastated by extreme flooding in July 2021. Anger spread to X, called then Twitter, using the hashtag "#laschetlacht" ("#laschetqesh").

For the first time in 2022, more German citizens said they mainly follow news online than on television, the Institute's annual survey shows Reuters for Journalism Studies.

Another important factor in the upcoming parliamentary elections, Kettemann said, will be the role of foreign actors using disinformation operations, such as bots and "dark campaigns" on messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp, to promote certain stories. The AfD, Germany's populist party, and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), presented pro-Russian, socially conservative, anti-migration and anti-climate programs.

"We know, for example, that Russia strongly prefers some German political parties over others. It wants to exacerbate polarizing tendencies within German society, and this is a threat that we need to be very aware of as we approach the Bundestag elections," Hassler said.

The EU has already introduced a comprehensive set of rules for social media and digital markets with the Digital Services Act (DSA), which aims to prevent illegal and harmful online activities and the spread of misinformation.

In preliminary findings published in July, EU regulators found that the platform X violated the DSA, stating that the blue checkmark verification system "misleads users," that the platform did not respect "the required transparency regarding advertising," and that it "did not allow researchers to access its public data."

According to Kettemann, the challenge now is implementing the legislation, which will not be possible in time for the German parliamentary elections in February. "Some platforms like X they don't seem to cooperate with EU rules, so it will be very difficult for this platform to be in line with democratic values ​​and EU rules," he said.

That could be even more difficult in the future as Musk's role becomes increasingly important in shaping US policy, Kettemann says, after US Vice President-elect JD Vance suggested this week that the US would withdraw their support for NATO if the EU tried to fix the platform X.

As more voters, especially young people, learn about politics and world affairs through social media, Ketterman urged traditional parties to increase their activities on social media platforms, because they must not leave a free field for disinformation actors. "It has to be us, the ones who have to lead the fight," he said. /DW/