By: Robert Fox / The Independent
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Putin's information offensive, with the claim that his residence was attacked this week by Ukrainian drones - for which no material evidence has been published - was a resounding success. It has earned the apparent ire of Donald Trump's sympathizers. At the same time, it has overturned any possibility of peace proposals discussed by Ukraine and the Europeans.

The feigned reaction from Putin's team - Lavrov, his deputy Sergei Ryabkov and spokesman Dmitry Peskov - amounts to an open threat that the war in Ukraine will continue. Russia is increasing its demands - now demanding the surrender of two more regions, Zaporizhia and Kherson, in addition to Donbass and Crimea.

There is also a hidden but clear threat to Western Europe - including the UK - that the war in Eastern Europe will deepen and widen. This means that NATO member states are being threatened - the three Baltic states bordering Russia, Finland, Poland and Norway. Finland and Sweden have warned that their civilian populations should be prepared for war. Norway's three northern districts, which extend to the Arctic border with Russia, have drawn up evacuation plans.

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Britain is also a target area.

The other main part in the information race with Russia was photography in The Sunday Times of a British frigate approaching - in the territorial waters of the United Kingdom - a Russian reconnaissance ship that also controls underwater vehicles. The scene was being monitored by a British search and attack submarine of the class AstuteUntil now, the Ministry of Defense had only released photographs of the frigate approaching the ship. YantarThe discovery that a submarine was following him also indicates that this is a much more serious game.

Yantar-i is the main surface ship of the Russian underwater intelligence service, known by the acronym Gugi. It originated during the Cold War but has been reinforced by Putin to conduct underwater surveillance - particularly of communication cables, oil and gas pipelines. Yantar-has been conducting research in British waters for years - the Irish coastguard noticed her suspicious interest in transatlantic cables while, two years ago, she was stationed off Limerick for a month.

Yantar-can launch underwater drones for surveillance and attack. The most powerful platform in Gugi's arsenal is the submarine Belgorod - currently the largest submarine in the world and extremely difficult for NATO to track. It can launch Poseidon-in, a nuclear-powered drone with a range, according to Putin, of ten thousand kilometers. According to Putin's latest boast, it is designed to carry a nuclear warhead. That belongs to the future. The most worrying potential now - how Poseidon-it as well as Yantar-it - is the ability to launch a whole range of underwater drones for attack and surveillance.

This feature of the Gugi fleet, with surface and submarine vessels, manned and automated, of varying sizes and ranges, is what worries the Royal Navy and its new commander, General Gwyn Jenkins. He has recently launched an information offensive to explain why he is ordering the deployment of surface drones and submarines from the British Navy, and why he is working with Norway to supply sensors and ships for the Atlantic Bastion concept - to monitor dangerous Russian activity through the spaces between the Faroe Islands and Iceland in the North Atlantic.

The Kremlin team is using the drone attack on Putin’s Novgorod residence as a way to distract Trump from his commitment to Europe and NATO for continued support for Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov could not clarify the number of drones involved in the attack — Lavrov said there were 91, the Kremlin only 41 — and said “evidence doesn’t matter.” Peskov then added that the conditions for peace have been “hardened,” returning to the original 2021 demand — repeated in the summer of 2022, after the invasion — that Ukraine must be “denazified” with new elections that would bring a puppet president to Kiev who would toe Moscow’s line.

Trump’s remark on the news that Putin’s residence had been attacked is significant: “You know who told me? President Putin, early this morning, told me it had been attacked. It’s not good.” As a result, Europe must now have an alternative plan to achieve peace and security in Ukraine.

There are five signs that Putin is preparing for a wider war:

First, plans have been announced for further call-ups of reservists. Battlefield casualties are still high - up to 400 this year alone and more than 1,500 a day in the Donbas this month. Reservists will be sent to the front lines - in violation of normal service rules. Putin may be thinking of raising another army, up to a million and a half soldiers within two years - and he is prepared to lose a large part of it.

Secondly, friendly former Soviet countries - the stationing of hypersonic missiles and nuclear-capable missiles in Belarus Oresik, oriented towards Europe. But this weapon is still unproven.

Third, in the Baltic states. Pressure is already mounting on Latvia. The Russian minority there, which makes up a quarter of the population, is bombarded and harassed by Russian propaganda and Russian-sponsored influencers. Russia has recently built access roads to the borders of Estonia and Latvia.

Fourth, there are vague threats and pressure on NATO states on the border - pushing unwanted migrants and refugees towards the border with Finland - compromising border posts and patrols in Norway and Estonia.

Fifth, increasing the pace of activities of the Gugi fleet monitoring vital underwater infrastructure - from Norway across the western Baltic and into the wider region of UK and Irish waters.

The ongoing investigations will be accompanied by mysterious drone activity around ports and airports - although these have subsided during December. The threat of hostile cyber activity, usually carried out by third parties and proxy groups, continues.proxy]. They are numerous - 50 a year in the UK; most are vague and negative. The attack on Jaguar Land RoverIt cost the company £1.5 billion [approximate value of €1.71 billion] and the British economy £5 billion [approximate value of €5.73 billion], and was not officially attributed to anyone - according to the Government [Whitehall].

The deadly mix of threat and danger now finds the UK – and its defences – largely unprepared, hence the warning from General Jenkins and the Navy. Despite big promises in the Defence Review in June, the armed forces are small and underfunded. The British Army has equipment for only 20 troops and major programmes for artillery, tanks and infantry carriers are currently on hold – largely due to confusion and indecision in the Government and a lack of funding. The Royal Air Force is short of trained pilots and the Royal Navy does not have enough sailors to man its entire fleet of ships.

The biggest worry — from what could now be called the great drone hoax in Novgorod — is what Putin’s new outburst of arrogance means. He now risks a direct confrontation with NATO — whether in the Baltics, the Arctic, or across the Mediterranean. That would mean activating Article 5 of the Atlantic Treaty, which says that if one ally is attacked, all allies are obligated to come to its aid.

For Britain, this raises the question of whether it is capable of delivering what is being asked of it. For the US and Trump, it raises the question of commitment. Some Trump supporters have tried to argue that the terms of Article 5 are not binding - and should only apply to European partners if one of them is attacked. But the terms of the treaty are clear - mutual defence of all 32 NATO allies is an obligation under the treaty ratified by Congress. Bad news for Donald Trump - whatever his friend on the phone from Moscow may have told him. /Telegraph/
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