Europe Day celebration in Moscow

In conclusion, this whole episode of Vučić's visit to Moscow reconfirmed that for the EU, Serbia remains a key actor in our region. Due to its political, military and economic importance, it is tolerated things that are not tolerated in others. Even celebrating Europe Day in Moscow.

A few days before Vučić’s trip to Moscow, the headline in one of the prestigious international media outlets could not have been more alarming: “EU to sanction Serbia if president joins Putin at Victory Parade.” The expectation was likely that, since Serbia has long refused to align with EU foreign policy, the visit to Moscow would be the last straw for the EU’s patience. But despite this, Vučić went to celebrate Europe Day in Moscow. There, he exchanged compliments with Putin, decorated Russian Patriarch Kirill, and offered a message of resistance to the EU, shaking hands with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, with the message that “Serbia and Slovakia will win.”

Why on Europe Day the two Europeans celebrate victory over Europe remained a mystery, but that didn’t stop pro-government media in Belgrade from igniting headlines like “President with a harsh message from Moscow” and “Serbia always on the right side of history.” The unspoken message was that Vučić showed the EU his place and that it is on the wrong side of history.

In a sense, Vučić's entire visit to Moscow on Europe Day was symbolic, capturing very nicely the contradiction of Serbia's European path. And, to ensure that the EU understood this message clearly, Vučić did not hesitate to repeat it personally to the President of the EU Council, Mr. Antonio Costa. When asked at a press conference about rejecting the EU's call not to go to Moscow, Vučić said with a laugh: "My job is not to listen to anyone. I am the President of Serbia. My job is to serve the people of Serbia, not to listen to or serve anyone." On the other hand, the President of the EU Council, Mr. Costa, relativized Vučić's visit to Moscow, saying that "it is good to talk even when we disagree" and that he was pleased to hear that "European integration remains a key priority for Serbia." And with that, this topic was closed. So, in the end, Vučić was right again.

He went to Moscow and suffered no consequences for it. Vučić is everything in this world, but he is not stupid. Vučić has calculated quite correctly that the EU will be unable to take any serious measures against Serbia. The maximum is a few protocol statements criticizing his departure, but nothing more than that. This is for several reasons.

First, the EU itself was not unified around what Moscow calls the “Victory Parade”. As long as Vučić has people like Orban and Fico at the EU table, he has no reason to worry about the EU’s reaction. Second, Vučić understands that the EU is not serious about Serbia’s EU membership. Consequently, he understands that at this moment he has nothing to lose by going to Moscow. Statements like those of Kaja Kallas and the European Commission spokespeople were an indication that the EU is not serious in its threats. In other words, in Vučić’s calculation, as long as he doesn’t get a call from Macron or Merz, he has nothing to worry about Kaja Kallas’s statements. Third, even in a scenario where the EU were to impose some measure against Serbia, Vučić correctly understood that the greater political cost would be not going to Moscow rather than some bureaucratic EU measures.

The Serbian people still retain a mystical sympathy for Serbia's alliance with Russia, and Vučić is quite careful to preserve this Serbian sentiment. In other words, between the sympathy of the Serbian people and Kaja Kallas's statements, Vučić's choice is simple. In conclusion, this entire episode of Vučić's trip to Moscow reconfirmed that, for the EU, Serbia remains a key actor in our region. Due to its political, military and economic importance, it is tolerated things that are not tolerated for others. Vučić understands this too. And, thus, both sides, the EU and Vučić, have established a cooperation where in exchange for Serbia's slow approach to the EU, Vučić will be tolerated some things. But, this modus operandi is slowly testing its limits. In the next few years, the EU must either accept Serbia into the EU, or the Vučić regime will become more repressive.

This is what we have seen in the last few years. For the last four years, Serbia’s integration process has been practically blocked and as a result we have seen an increasingly repressive Serbia. In other words, the EU and Vučić may tolerate each other, but Serbian citizens will not tolerate this status quo. Thus, in the end, the chances are that Vučić’s regime will not be threatened by “great powers” ​​and geopolitical developments, but by “small powers” ​​and internal Serbian developments. The question that will then remain is how the EU will position itself towards this new reality. We do not know this, but we do know that the current European course towards Serbia is coming to an end.