Protests in Tehran have entered their 13th consecutive day, while since Thursday night, widespread — and in some cases almost complete — internet outages have reduced communication with inside Iran to a minimum.

Limited images and videos circulating on social media and messaging apps suggest that protests are spreading to several cities across the country.

However, due to strict connectivity restrictions, independent verification of all reports is not possible.

The images broadcast from Iran last night may remind a German audience of the days leading up to the fall of the Berlin Wall, while for many Iranians they evoke memories of the final days of Shah Reza Pahlavi's regime in 1979.

US President Donald Trump has described the events as "the biggest protests he has ever seen".

Given the speed of developments, the disruption of communications, and the lack of a clear picture of the balance of power within the country, analysts are describing several main scenarios for the near future, writes € news.

Escalation of security measures

One of the most prominent scenarios involves an escalation of repression.

On Friday, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a resolution announcing a "very decisive response" to the protests.

The council — the highest decision-making body on security in the country — claimed that the recent demonstrations had “deviated from legitimate public demands” and were heading towards instability through “guidance and planning by Israel and the United States.”

While this official narrative differs significantly from the realities on the ground, it signals that authorities are portraying the situation as a threat to national security.

Critics warn that such a framework effectively paves the way for the wider use of force, as protesters are no longer treated as disgruntled citizens, but as agents of an "enemy project."

Meanwhile, the likelihood of harsher crackdowns, mass arrests, and even the use of deadly force has increased.

Although such measures may calm the streets in the short term, many analysts argue that they would only deepen the regime's legitimacy crisis and intensify accumulated grievances.

The published images suggest that a scenario similar to that previously observed in Sistan and Baluchestan could be repeated.

Desertions within state forces — or their further radicalization

Erosion within the ranks of the security and military forces represents one of the most critical scenarios.

Reports of large-scale protests in cities such as Mashhad — the birthplace of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — combined with Trump's references to security forces withdrawing have attracted considerable attention.

Economic hardship, growing awareness of the fate of similar regimes, and ongoing revelations about widespread corruption, elite lifestyles, and the presence of officials' children in Western countries are all factors that could weaken loyalty within parts of the armed forces.

At the same time, some analysts believe that last night's developments mark a turning point.

According to them, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may conclude that they have no choice but to intervene fully.

While such an action could generate fear and threats in the short term, a prolonged confrontation could significantly increase the risk of defections among loyal forces.

However, analysts argue that no fundamental shift in the balance of power has yet occurred.

Under any evolving scenario, they suggest, it remains impossible for the Islamic Republic to immediately relinquish control - even if maintaining that control requires prolonged instability and internal erosion.

Alongside physical repression, the "cyberwar" has become a central element of the government's response.

Some experts speculate that authorities may be using tactics such as blocking or targeted disruption of satellite communications or Starlink infrastructure, in addition to a complete internet shutdown - methods previously used against satellite television networks.

If accurate, this would signal Iran's entry into a more advanced phase of communications control and a deliberate attempt to completely isolate the country's information space.

Such measures themselves may reflect the depth of the regime's concern about the continuation and expansion of the protests.

Trump, Pahlavi and the possibility of a return to power

Trump's remarks regarding Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi have added another layer of uncertainty to the crisis.

While Trump has described him as "a good guy," reports suggest that - contrary to previous indications - no direct meeting between the two is planned for next Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago.

Speculation over the cancellation ranges from legal considerations to attempts to avoid providing justification for the repression of the Islamic Republic, under claims of "foreign interference."

However, some observers remain unconvinced by these explanations, given Trump's track record.

Meanwhile, according to some analysts, the public reaction to the call made by the son of Iran's last shah has exceeded initial expectations.

In some parts of the demonstrations, the calls have directly targeted the peak of power in the Islamic Republic, while in numerous cases references have been heard to the restoration of the monarchy or the Pahlavi name - a change in protest rhetoric compared to previous cycles.

In contrast, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, reiterated on Friday that the system "will not retreat."

In footage broadcast by state television, he again labeled the protesters as "rebels," claiming that the demonstrations served Trump's interests and were intended to please the US president.

He also described the protesters as "harmful individuals" for the country.

Internal reform and the 'Bonapartist' scenario

Until just a few days ago, this scenario was considered among the most plausible outcomes.

Given the high costs of regime change for the US, the Venezuelan experience following foreign intervention, and the fact that the continued existence of the Islamic Republic serves certain regional and global interests, the idea arose that a figure from within the system could be charged with reform - stabilizing the economy without fundamentally changing the power structure.

The main uncertainty has been the identification of such a figure.

Some have mentioned former President Hassan Rouhani; others have suggested the emergence of a lesser-known military figure - a "Napoleonic" savior stepping in to restore order.

However, some experts dismissed Rouhani's return as unrealistic, arguing that any attempt by him to re-enter power would likely result in his removal by hardliners allied with the ayatollah.

Trump's recent remarks regarding Iran's opposition — particularly Crown Prince Pahlavi — have influenced this equation.

However, the widespread public reaction to Pahlavi's latest call, especially since Thursday, has significantly weakened this scenario, although it has not been completely eliminated.

Neither Syria nor Venezuela?

Another scenario gaining ground involves the possible departure or flight of senior figures from the Islamic Republic, echoing elements of the Syrian model.

Reports have circulated about suspicious Russian flights, suspected gold transfers from Iran, and speculation about a possible relocation of Khamenei and his family to Moscow.

Unconfirmed reports have also emerged regarding visa requests by the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and his family to France, or the presence of Abbas Araghchi's family during his trip to Lebanon.

In contrast, Venezuela's experience under Nicolas Maduro shows that, contrary to early expectations, the power structure has not collapsed and has so far remained intact.

This has led some observers to suggest that Trump's main objective may be the personal removal of Khamenei, followed by the appointment of an authority figure within the system to manage the transition.

However, given the accelerating and expanding nature of the protests, it is unclear whether this scenario still holds the same weight.

A more prominent possibility now being discussed is a model that is neither Syria nor Venezuela, but one that results in the emergence of a leadership more closely aligned with the West.

However, it remains uncertain what will follow the removal, death, or overthrow of the supreme leader.

Would Iran face fragmentation, insecurity, or intensified ethnic and minority demands? Or could a “savior” figure overcome the country’s deep structural crises?

In this context, questions also arise about how — and to what extent — promises of foreign investment and statements from figures such as Dara Khosrowshahi or Elon Musk can materialize.

Meanwhile, global powers like China – and to a lesser extent Russia – are unlikely to remain passive and will almost certainly play a role in this historic recalibration.

Ultimately, if the signals transmitted by Tehran over the past few hours reflect the realities on the ground, the likelihood of the government resorting to higher levels of violence appears to be increasing.

However, with internet access largely disrupted, this data only captures a limited portion of voices within Iran, making it difficult to assess their full impact on protesters' decisions. /Telegraph/

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