Biden's latest decision is important for Ukraine, but Putin will retaliate

Source: The Guardian
Translation: Telerafi.com

US President Joe Biden's recent decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range Western missiles at military targets inside Russian territory risks triggering a sharp increase in retaliatory sabotage - such as cyber attacks and arson against Britain and its partners. its European members of NATO.

Vladimir Putin, who ordered the illegal and large-scale invasion of Ukraine a thousand days ago, has long warned that Kiev's expanded use of US-, British- and French-made missiles would be watched by Moscow. as an act of war by NATO and could cause catastrophic consequences. Putin's warning is now being put to the test, to see if it is just an empty threat.

The same can be said of Keir Starmer and the European Union. A joint statement by G7 leaders, coinciding with the 20-day anniversary of the occupation, pledged "unwavering support for Ukraine for as long as necessary." Starmer reiterated that commitment on his way to the GXNUMX summit this week in Brazil. What this means in practice may soon be put to the test.

Biden's decision is welcome, albeit delayed. At a time of slow Russian ground advances, rifts in the European Union and the re-election of Donald Trump, the war has reached a critical point both militarily and diplomatically. The outcome is in doubt, with the balance currently tipping towards more death and destruction – before a possible Trump-brokered peace deal is reached, where territories would be handed over for peace.

For now, Russia has the upper hand. But Kiev will not surrender – and it must not surrender.

Biden was reluctant to give approval for the missiles, despite months of pressure from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who has argued, rightly, that Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind its back. Russian military airports, bases and command centers used to launch daily, often deadly, missile and drone strikes against Ukraine's cities and energy infrastructure are out of range.

Biden's reluctance was the result of excessive caution on the part of the United States, which has been seen from the beginning with the reluctance to supply new weapons. If Ukraine had been equipped in 2022 with all the tanks, air defense systems, missiles and warplanes that have been belatedly given to it then, it probably would not be facing the current difficulties.

But his reluctance is said to have been reinforced by a classified US intelligence assessment. This assessment warned that Putin could respond to the use – on Russian soil – of the American long-range tactical missile system (atacms) and Anglo-French rockets Storm Shadow, also known as Scalp-EG, with attacks on the United States and its allies.

A direct and open Russian response with armed attacks on military bases or European territory seems unlikely, although tensions are high with Poland and other NATO countries on the "frontline". Dark threats by Putin associates – such as former president Dmitry Medvedev – to use nuclear weapons are dismissed as rhetorical scaremongering.

Instead, the intelligence assessment suggests, Russia may intensify covert and deniable sabotage: cyberattacks, information warfare and arson, similar to those it has undertaken in recent years. This would allow the Kremlin to inflict material damage, especially on reluctant NATO members such as Olaf Scholz's Germany, while avoiding an all-out East-West war.

The GRU – Russia's military intelligence agency – and other state agencies are said to have been tasked by Putin with preparing asymmetric responses precisely to the circumstances now unfolding. The main goal: to disturb and destabilize Western societies and public opinion in the West.

The GRU is notorious in Britain for the Salisbury poisonings in 2018, an incident not directly linked to Ukraine. In March of this year, the GRU was linked to the arson of a warehouse in east London, which was supposed to be used to supply Ukraine. Attacks on a factory in Poland and non-military targets in Latvia and Lithuania have also been attributed to the GRU. In May, Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, said 12 people had been arrested for beatings, arson and "acts of sabotage commissioned by Russian intelligence services".

These may have been mere preliminary acts. Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia and the newly appointed head of the EU's foreign policy, has declared that Moscow is waging a "shadow war" against Europe. Norway's prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, has warned that Russia could target energy producers and weapons factories. Europe needs a coordinated approach, Kallas stressed. "How far will we allow them to go on our land"?

Nor is the threat limited to land. Last week, in the latest in a series of incidents, a Russian spy ship - officially classified as an "oceanographic research vessel" - was forced out of the Irish Sea. Its unexplained presence in the area and around the UK coast has raised concerns about the safety of critical underwater infrastructure, including pipelines and internet cables linking the UK, Ireland, Europe and the United States.

Described as the latest attempt to test the West's defenses and vulnerabilities, the incident followed an investigation in the Nordic countries last year into suspected Russian state-run espionage operations. Spy ships, disguised as fishing boats, are being used to plan future attacks on wind farms and communications cables in the North Sea, the report said.

However Russia responds — and the Kremlin's initial reaction was wait-and-see — Biden's decision presents challenges not only for Ukraine, but also for European NATO allies. Having insisted so hard and for so long, Zelenskyy must prove that the missiles represent a significant difference. US officials are skeptical that they can turn the tide of the war, while EU officials in Brussels hope otherwise.

What Biden appears to be hoping is that long-range strikes on North Korean troops newly stationed in Russia's disputed Kursk region will deter Pyongyang from further involvement. Even this seems impossible. Kim Jong-un, the reclusive dictator of North Korea, is Putin's new best friend. He is not known for a caring attitude towards human life.

With Trump advisers threatening treason de facto to Ukraine, European leaders, including Starmer, must provide funds and weapons to support Zelenskyy in continuing the war - even without material and financial support from the US, if necessary.

The problem is the lack of unity in purpose and resources. Last week, Scholzi broke ranks with the EU majority when he called Putin to talk. Chancellor (who continues to refuse to supply Ukraine with German missiles Taurus long-range) said he is pursuing peace. But this was seen as a weakness in the run-up to early elections and angered other leaders. "No one will stop Putin with phone calls," said Tusk angrily. "Telephone diplomacy cannot replace the real support of the whole West for Ukraine."

"All the West" includes France. But President Emmanuel Macron, who has spoken often and passionately about the vital importance for Europe of defeating Russia, now appears to be reluctant to give Kiev permission to use the French missiles. Will Starmer give the green light, or will he back down too?

With Ukraine burning, Europe torn and Biden two months away from political uncertainty, it's no wonder Putin, with an arsenal of dirty tricks up his sleeve, thinks he's winning the Ukraine missile crisis. /Telegraph/