Biden's green light may be too little too late for Ukraine

By: Samuel Ramani / The Daily Telegraph
Translation: Telegrafi.com

Ukraine's wait to receive permission to use long-range US ATACMS missiles on Russian territory is finally over. President Joe Biden has approved Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles against targets in the Kursk region, where Russian and North Korean forces are trying to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their fortified positions.

Biden's decision represents a historic diplomatic triumph for Ukraine. At the European Strategy Conference in Yalta on September 13, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that shipments of ATACMS missiles were useless unless they could be used against Russian targets. Zelensky used this logic in a personal appeal to Biden at the White House later that month, but left Washington empty-handed. The fear of Donald Trump's return as president and his threat to stop US aid to Ukraine ultimately pushed Biden to decisive action.

Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles in Kursk is expected to bring immediate benefits to its increasingly difficult frontline position. Russia's sending of 10 North Korean troops to the Kursk region is widely seen as asymmetric retaliation against Ukraine for receiving permission to use NATO weapons against Russian targets. Challenging Russia by expanding Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles could prevent President Vladimir Putin from recruiting additional contingents of North Korean troops in 2025. It could also allow Ukraine to more frequently strike Kursk's Vostochny Airfield, a military facility where MiG-29 aircraft and Pantsir S-1 air defense systems are reported to be located.

The real significance of Biden's decision depends on the flexibility of the US in what it will offer Ukrainian troops. Since Ukraine has already used shorter-range HIMARS missiles in cross-border attacks around Kharkiv, the US may approve the use of ATACMS missiles for similar purposes. This would further complicate Russia's attempt to achieve a military breakthrough in the direction of Kupiansk.

It is not yet clear whether the US will allow Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles against Russian targets further from the front lines. While Russia has preemptively moved 90 percent of the aircraft it uses for glide bomb attacks out of range of ATACMS missiles, 17 air bases and at least 250 major military facilities are still within their range.

If Biden's decision prompts British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to ease restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow missiles, these facilities will become even more vulnerable. Ukraine's suspected drone attack on a Russian factory in Izhevsk on Sunday, which is located 1,300 kilometers from its border, has disrupted Russia's drone and air defense production chains. Securing broader permits for the use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles will strengthen Ukraine's technological achievements.

As Trump's inauguration approaches, the US is finally fully mobilizing to support Ukraine's victory. A promising turnaround, but one that may be too little too late for Ukraine. /Telegraph/